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? Regulatory measures unlikely to be harsh. While we believe the property sector will be imposed with tighter rules, any new measures are likely to be moderate as the Government would not want to dampen the whole property sector.
In line with our view, the PM has also recently indicated that new measures are likely to target at home buyers who own more than two houses. Undoubtedbly the proposed measures could reduce some speculative acitivies due to lower leverageability, we think the overall impact on the property sector would be moderate, as:
(i) Young populations are typically the first or second home owners; and
(ii) Buyers who own more than two homes are generally the affluent group.
? Strong support for demand. There are still a few strong catalysts to drive demand for properties going forward:
(i) Faster growing of young demographics to drive big-ticket purchases i.e. homes and motor vehicles;
(ii) Low mortgage rate as commercial banks continue to offer discount to BLR;
(iii) Aggressive promotions/incentives being offered by developers; (iv) Strengthening in ringgit that encourages foreigners participation; and (v) Property is a preferred vehicle to
hedge against inflation.
? Property prices continue to hold well until 2012/13. Based on our analysis on the relationship between young population growth and ARPP (Average Residential Property Price), ARPP will continue to hold well over the next 2 years until 2012/13. Property prices in general have appreciated by 10% from last year (from industry sources). Apart from the driving forces for demand mentioned above, given the increasingly higher replacement cost for landbank borne by developers, as well as stable building material prices, property prices for primary market will be supported even though developers’ margins remain the same.
? Risks. Our view is formed based on the assumption that first and second home buyers are exempted from lower LTV ratio. However, if this is not the case, our investment thesis can be derailed. Key risks for the property sector are:
1) lowerthan- expected cap on lending rate imposed by Bank Negara Malaysia;
2) higher tax bracket for real property gain tax (RPGT); and
3) country risks.
? Maintain Overweight. We maintain our Overweight stance on the property sector. Our top picks remain unchanged: IJM Land (OP, FV = RM3.00), Mah Sing (OP, FV = RM2.06), and Suncity (OP, FV = RM5.48).
Still In Hot Flavour
? Regional markets started to tighten. Since last year, regional markets such as China, Hong Kong and Singapore have started to implement various measures to curb speculations in the property market. In our opinion, generally the Asian countries are more prone to the formation of speculative bubble (compared to western countries), given the current low interest rate and high savings rate environment. As such, in line with other regional countries, we believe Malaysia is likely to follow suit, following the re-imposition of RPGT
announced in Budget 2010 last year.
? New regulatory measures are likely to be more accommodative. While the concerns on lowering loan-tovalue (LTV) ratio has overshadowed the performance of most property stocks, our Prime Minister has recently indicated that new measures are likely to target at home purchasers who own more than two houses. Meanwhile, first and second home buyers will still be entitled to 90% LTV ratio.
While we welcome some measures to be implemented to curb the “overheating” property market, we think any measu res are likely to be on a gradual basis, taking a cue from the neighbouring countries, i.e. 80% LTV cap for third and subsequent house purchases, and gradually lower to 70% after some period of time; or 80% LTV cap for second house, 70% for third house and so on.
A tiering system can also be used, such as a LTV cap to be imposed only for residential properties priced above RM500k, for example. Undoubtedbly the proposed measures could reduce some speculative acitivies due to lower leverage ability and hence lower “Return On Equity”, we think the impact on the property sector would be moderate, due to the following reasons:
(i) Young populations are typically the first or second home owners; and
(ii) Buyers who own more than two homes are generally the affluent group.
? Strong support for demand. Apart from the negative headwind from tightening regulatory measures, we think there are still a few strong drivers to lead demand growth for properties going forward:
(i) Faster growing of young demographics to drive big-ticket purchases i.e. homes and motor vehicles;
(ii) Low mortgage rate as commercial banks continue to offer discount to BLR;
(iii) Aggressive promotions/incentives being offered by developers;
(iv) Stregthening in ringgit that encourages foreigners participation; and
(v) Property is a preferred vehicle to hedge against inflation.
(i) Faster growing of young demographics to drive big-ticket purchases
We believe the faster growing young demographics (relative to other age groups of 0-14 and >65) in Malaysia are the key driving force for property demand. Historically, the cycle of private consumption roughly coincides with the cycle of growth in young demographic increase lagged by 19/20 years. Hence, given the strong growth in population aged 15-64 in year 1992, we reasonably believe that this will then translate to high private consumption growth in 2010-2012, and hence stable increase in ARPP (see charts below) until 2012/2013.
Our view is reinforced, as the increase in the middle-aged population will lead to the formation of higher number of households, and this group of population typically has higher propensity to spend. In addition, the younger population generally has lower risk aversion, due to the lack of experience in the past rounds of economic crisis (in the mid 1980’s and 1997 Asian Financial Crisis). Based on RHBRI’s economics team’s projections, private consumption is estimated to grow by 5.6% in 2010 and 5.4% in 2011. Note that the strong growth in private consumption is already seen from the substantial pick-up in property as well as motor vehicle sales since late 2009.
(ii) Cheap financing in addition to innovative developers’ incentives
Given the prevailing (relatively) low interest rate environment, the system is still flushed with liquidity, which encourages property buying. Competition among banks have also kept discount to BLR at around 1.8-2.2%, compared to a premium above BLR prior to 2005, which partly explains the “cooler” property market during that period. We opine that, even if 70% cap on LTV is to be implemented on buyers who own more than two houses, developers are likely to continue with their aggressive incentives/rebates to lower the “entry price” to boost the affordability of potential buyers. A check on the ground, depending on negotiations with developers, currently some developers even allow buyers to make their downpayment by using credit cards and split into few tranches.
Some, for instance, offer 10% rebate and buyers only need to fork out RM5,000 as “downpayment” for a terrace house priced at RM500k, and pay nothing until completion. Note that mortgage loan is still based on 90% of the value of property i.e. RM500k, which would effectively mean almost 100% financing for the house. While the incentives offered are good for developers as they can generate strong sales over the short-term, it would also encourage more “speculative” buying due to availability of high leverage.
(iii) Strengthening in ringgit to spur foreign participations.
We believe the direction of ringgit will also play a role in the Malaysian property market. Thus far in 2010, MYR/USD has strengthened by about 10.5%, stimulated mainly by Bank Negara Malaysia’s recent liberalisation policy for international trade purpose. The continued strengthening in ringgit is likely to attract higher foreigners’ participation in the Malaysia property market, due to higher expected return from investment (eg. 4-5% rental yield + 10% YTD currency gain).
While the returning of foreigners to the Malaysian property scene is still not prevalent at this juncture, Ireka – a high-end residences developer, already saw foreign buyers coming back, as more than 50% of the company’s ongoing SENI Mont’ Kiara project is taken up by foreigners.
We also think that, only certain properties, such as selective high-rise residences and commercial/purpose-built buildings in certain locations, may benefit, as the sector-wide recovery for high-end high-rise residences will still depend on the inflow of expats, which is tied to the inflow of Foreign Direct Investments into the country. We note that over the past few months, some foreign-based funds (ADF Tiger III and ARA Asia Dragon Fund) have also acquired properties in Malaysia - AEON Melaka Mall and 1 Mont’ Kiara, showing increasing interests in Malaysian properties.
(iv) Property – a preferred vehicle to hedge against inflation.
Last but not least, property is always seen as a preferred vehicle to hedge against long-term inflation. Hence, the sector will continue to be an asset reflation play. While the current inflation shown by CPI is still moderate, according to BNM’s sensitivity study, the gradual removal of subsidies would push inflation to 4% in 2011-12, before easing to 3% in 2013. Therefore, we believe the cost-push factors would make real estate a preferred inflationary hedge to preserve values, given limited alternative choices.
? Higher land replacement cost to support property prices. Apart from the fundamental drivers from demand, other supporting factors that sustain property prices include increasing land replacement costs. Land is one of the scarce resources.
As developers continue to replenish their landbank, land replacement costs will become higher, partially due also to the competitive biddings. Hence, even though building material (steel bars, sand and cement) prices have remained stable thus far, property prices in the primary market, in general, are likely to sustain at high levels even if developers maintain their margins. Or, it at least suggests that, downside for property prices (in primary market) will not be overly substantial.
Since early 2010, many developers have also stepped-up their landbank replenishment effort, and therefore landbank acquisition activities are rather vigorous this year. Below are some recent land acquisitions by selective developers:
? Sector still fueled with good news on Government’s development plans. Apart from the recent mulls on lowering cap on LTV, the property sector is still fueled with good news with the announcement on government development plans. These include the 3,300-acre Rubber Research Institute land in Sungai Buloh as well as the Sungai Besi Financial Centre. Especially the RRI land which is worth an estimated GDV of RM10bn, many developers have shown their interest to participate in the big scale development together with EPF.
We understand that, MRCB is currently “assisting” EPF in drawing up the masterplan, and dividing the sub-parcels of land. On another front, the proposed MRT lines (Red line: Kota Damansara-Golden Triangle-Serdang; Green line: Sg Buloh-Kepong-Kg Baru-KLCC-Cheras-Kajang) will also benefit certain developers which have landbank along the affected areas. We gather that, a number of areas have also been identified as MRT stations in future, such as Pusat Bandar Damansara, Dataran Sunway, 1 Utama/The Curve, Subang Bestari, Balakong, Sg Besi Financial Centre, Matrade etc).
Although the proposed MRT network will take 8-10 years to be completed, we nevertheless think that, over the longer term, values of properties located in the selected areas will appreciate. Companies that stand to benefit include SP Setia (KL EcoCity), Mah Sing (Icon Residence and Star Avenue), Suncity (Sunway Velocity) and Glomac (Damansara and PJ projects).
The ability to pay a 20% downpayment upfront
? High-end properties would be more susceptible. As a rough indication (refer to Table 4), the proportion that a typical 10% downpayment to household net financial asset (financial asset minus total debt; financial assets comprise saving deposits, unit trust funds, life insurance funds and EPF) is about 16-18%. However, if a 20% downpayment is required, it would then make up about 32-36% of household net financial asset.
Therefore, on the surface, the impact on the property sector is rather minimal. However, there are a few caveats here:
(i) The average value of property transacted is about the range for middle-end properties but most properties that are sold by many of the property companies under our coverage are priced at above RM500k; and
(ii) Net financial asset per household in the following table appears on the high side, as low income group’s household financial asset typically consists of only EPF and savings, and EPF makes up about 25-30% of total household financial assets. As such, the proportion of downpayment to household financial net asset may not be very accurate to
reflect the impact on the property sector, once lending cap is imposed.
Nevertheless, we are of the opinion that, high-end property segment will be more supceptible (relative to other sub-segments) to changes in lending policy, as many speculative buyings are mainly concentrated on this segment. As lending cap is lowered, “return on equity” will therefore be reduced, making property investment less attractive.
In addition, we are also aware that, the current strong sales of properties priced above RM500k are very much supported by easy financing and attractive incentives offered by developers (e.g. no payment until completion). Hence, depending on the extent of developers’ ability to come out with innovative marketing scheme, we think generally impact on high-end property segment will be relatively significant, compared to middle and low-end housing segment.
Key Risks for the sector
? Risks. Our view is formed based on the assumption that first and second home buyers are exempted from lower LTV ratio. However, if this is not the case, our investment thesis can be derailed. Key risks for the property sector are: 1) Lower-than-expected cap on lending rate imposed by Bank Negara Malaysia; 2) higher tax bracket for real property gain tax (RPGT); and 3) country risks.
Valuations and Recommendations
? Valuations still attractive. Although property stocks, on average, have done quite well in 3Q2010 (+17%), in our opinion, valuations are still attractive at the current level. While developers such as SP Setia, Mah Sing, Glomac, and Suncity are generating record sales, P/B for many property stocks are still below their +2 stdev level or their previous peak in 2007-08 (see Charts 15-23). We believe once the regulatory risk is cleared (pending announcement from the authority) and if the new measures are in line with our expectations, we see the strong potential for property stocks to outperform going forward.
Maintain Overweight. We maintain our Overweight stance on the property sector. To re-iterate, Average Residential Property Price will continue to hold until 2012-2013, supported by:
(i) Faster growing of young demographics to drive big-ticket purchases i.e. homes and motor vehicles;
(ii) Low mortgage rate as commercial banks continue to offer discount to BLR;
(iii) Aggressive promotions/incentives being offered by developers;
(iv) Stregthening in ringgit that encourages foreigners participation; and
(v) Property is a preferred vehicle to hedge against inflation. In addition, higher land replacement cost will also hold up property prices in the primary market.
Our top picks for the sector remained unchanged: IJM Land (OP, FV = RM3.00), Mah Sing (OP, FV =RM2.06) and Suncity (OP, FV = RM5.48).
In line with our view, the PM has also recently indicated that new measures are likely to target at home buyers who own more than two houses. Undoubtedbly the proposed measures could reduce some speculative acitivies due to lower leverageability, we think the overall impact on the property sector would be moderate, as:
(i) Young populations are typically the first or second home owners; and
(ii) Buyers who own more than two homes are generally the affluent group.
? Strong support for demand. There are still a few strong catalysts to drive demand for properties going forward:
(i) Faster growing of young demographics to drive big-ticket purchases i.e. homes and motor vehicles;
(ii) Low mortgage rate as commercial banks continue to offer discount to BLR;
(iii) Aggressive promotions/incentives being offered by developers; (iv) Strengthening in ringgit that encourages foreigners participation; and (v) Property is a preferred vehicle to
hedge against inflation.
? Property prices continue to hold well until 2012/13. Based on our analysis on the relationship between young population growth and ARPP (Average Residential Property Price), ARPP will continue to hold well over the next 2 years until 2012/13. Property prices in general have appreciated by 10% from last year (from industry sources). Apart from the driving forces for demand mentioned above, given the increasingly higher replacement cost for landbank borne by developers, as well as stable building material prices, property prices for primary market will be supported even though developers’ margins remain the same.
? Risks. Our view is formed based on the assumption that first and second home buyers are exempted from lower LTV ratio. However, if this is not the case, our investment thesis can be derailed. Key risks for the property sector are:
1) lowerthan- expected cap on lending rate imposed by Bank Negara Malaysia;
2) higher tax bracket for real property gain tax (RPGT); and
3) country risks.
? Maintain Overweight. We maintain our Overweight stance on the property sector. Our top picks remain unchanged: IJM Land (OP, FV = RM3.00), Mah Sing (OP, FV = RM2.06), and Suncity (OP, FV = RM5.48).
Still In Hot Flavour
? Regional markets started to tighten. Since last year, regional markets such as China, Hong Kong and Singapore have started to implement various measures to curb speculations in the property market. In our opinion, generally the Asian countries are more prone to the formation of speculative bubble (compared to western countries), given the current low interest rate and high savings rate environment. As such, in line with other regional countries, we believe Malaysia is likely to follow suit, following the re-imposition of RPGT
announced in Budget 2010 last year.
? New regulatory measures are likely to be more accommodative. While the concerns on lowering loan-tovalue (LTV) ratio has overshadowed the performance of most property stocks, our Prime Minister has recently indicated that new measures are likely to target at home purchasers who own more than two houses. Meanwhile, first and second home buyers will still be entitled to 90% LTV ratio.
While we welcome some measures to be implemented to curb the “overheating” property market, we think any measu res are likely to be on a gradual basis, taking a cue from the neighbouring countries, i.e. 80% LTV cap for third and subsequent house purchases, and gradually lower to 70% after some period of time; or 80% LTV cap for second house, 70% for third house and so on.
A tiering system can also be used, such as a LTV cap to be imposed only for residential properties priced above RM500k, for example. Undoubtedbly the proposed measures could reduce some speculative acitivies due to lower leverage ability and hence lower “Return On Equity”, we think the impact on the property sector would be moderate, due to the following reasons:
(i) Young populations are typically the first or second home owners; and
(ii) Buyers who own more than two homes are generally the affluent group.
? Strong support for demand. Apart from the negative headwind from tightening regulatory measures, we think there are still a few strong drivers to lead demand growth for properties going forward:
(i) Faster growing of young demographics to drive big-ticket purchases i.e. homes and motor vehicles;
(ii) Low mortgage rate as commercial banks continue to offer discount to BLR;
(iii) Aggressive promotions/incentives being offered by developers;
(iv) Stregthening in ringgit that encourages foreigners participation; and
(v) Property is a preferred vehicle to hedge against inflation.
(i) Faster growing of young demographics to drive big-ticket purchases
We believe the faster growing young demographics (relative to other age groups of 0-14 and >65) in Malaysia are the key driving force for property demand. Historically, the cycle of private consumption roughly coincides with the cycle of growth in young demographic increase lagged by 19/20 years. Hence, given the strong growth in population aged 15-64 in year 1992, we reasonably believe that this will then translate to high private consumption growth in 2010-2012, and hence stable increase in ARPP (see charts below) until 2012/2013.
Our view is reinforced, as the increase in the middle-aged population will lead to the formation of higher number of households, and this group of population typically has higher propensity to spend. In addition, the younger population generally has lower risk aversion, due to the lack of experience in the past rounds of economic crisis (in the mid 1980’s and 1997 Asian Financial Crisis). Based on RHBRI’s economics team’s projections, private consumption is estimated to grow by 5.6% in 2010 and 5.4% in 2011. Note that the strong growth in private consumption is already seen from the substantial pick-up in property as well as motor vehicle sales since late 2009.
(ii) Cheap financing in addition to innovative developers’ incentives
Given the prevailing (relatively) low interest rate environment, the system is still flushed with liquidity, which encourages property buying. Competition among banks have also kept discount to BLR at around 1.8-2.2%, compared to a premium above BLR prior to 2005, which partly explains the “cooler” property market during that period. We opine that, even if 70% cap on LTV is to be implemented on buyers who own more than two houses, developers are likely to continue with their aggressive incentives/rebates to lower the “entry price” to boost the affordability of potential buyers. A check on the ground, depending on negotiations with developers, currently some developers even allow buyers to make their downpayment by using credit cards and split into few tranches.
Some, for instance, offer 10% rebate and buyers only need to fork out RM5,000 as “downpayment” for a terrace house priced at RM500k, and pay nothing until completion. Note that mortgage loan is still based on 90% of the value of property i.e. RM500k, which would effectively mean almost 100% financing for the house. While the incentives offered are good for developers as they can generate strong sales over the short-term, it would also encourage more “speculative” buying due to availability of high leverage.
(iii) Strengthening in ringgit to spur foreign participations.
We believe the direction of ringgit will also play a role in the Malaysian property market. Thus far in 2010, MYR/USD has strengthened by about 10.5%, stimulated mainly by Bank Negara Malaysia’s recent liberalisation policy for international trade purpose. The continued strengthening in ringgit is likely to attract higher foreigners’ participation in the Malaysia property market, due to higher expected return from investment (eg. 4-5% rental yield + 10% YTD currency gain).
While the returning of foreigners to the Malaysian property scene is still not prevalent at this juncture, Ireka – a high-end residences developer, already saw foreign buyers coming back, as more than 50% of the company’s ongoing SENI Mont’ Kiara project is taken up by foreigners.
We also think that, only certain properties, such as selective high-rise residences and commercial/purpose-built buildings in certain locations, may benefit, as the sector-wide recovery for high-end high-rise residences will still depend on the inflow of expats, which is tied to the inflow of Foreign Direct Investments into the country. We note that over the past few months, some foreign-based funds (ADF Tiger III and ARA Asia Dragon Fund) have also acquired properties in Malaysia - AEON Melaka Mall and 1 Mont’ Kiara, showing increasing interests in Malaysian properties.
(iv) Property – a preferred vehicle to hedge against inflation.
Last but not least, property is always seen as a preferred vehicle to hedge against long-term inflation. Hence, the sector will continue to be an asset reflation play. While the current inflation shown by CPI is still moderate, according to BNM’s sensitivity study, the gradual removal of subsidies would push inflation to 4% in 2011-12, before easing to 3% in 2013. Therefore, we believe the cost-push factors would make real estate a preferred inflationary hedge to preserve values, given limited alternative choices.
? Higher land replacement cost to support property prices. Apart from the fundamental drivers from demand, other supporting factors that sustain property prices include increasing land replacement costs. Land is one of the scarce resources.
As developers continue to replenish their landbank, land replacement costs will become higher, partially due also to the competitive biddings. Hence, even though building material (steel bars, sand and cement) prices have remained stable thus far, property prices in the primary market, in general, are likely to sustain at high levels even if developers maintain their margins. Or, it at least suggests that, downside for property prices (in primary market) will not be overly substantial.
Since early 2010, many developers have also stepped-up their landbank replenishment effort, and therefore landbank acquisition activities are rather vigorous this year. Below are some recent land acquisitions by selective developers:
? Sector still fueled with good news on Government’s development plans. Apart from the recent mulls on lowering cap on LTV, the property sector is still fueled with good news with the announcement on government development plans. These include the 3,300-acre Rubber Research Institute land in Sungai Buloh as well as the Sungai Besi Financial Centre. Especially the RRI land which is worth an estimated GDV of RM10bn, many developers have shown their interest to participate in the big scale development together with EPF.
We understand that, MRCB is currently “assisting” EPF in drawing up the masterplan, and dividing the sub-parcels of land. On another front, the proposed MRT lines (Red line: Kota Damansara-Golden Triangle-Serdang; Green line: Sg Buloh-Kepong-Kg Baru-KLCC-Cheras-Kajang) will also benefit certain developers which have landbank along the affected areas. We gather that, a number of areas have also been identified as MRT stations in future, such as Pusat Bandar Damansara, Dataran Sunway, 1 Utama/The Curve, Subang Bestari, Balakong, Sg Besi Financial Centre, Matrade etc).
Although the proposed MRT network will take 8-10 years to be completed, we nevertheless think that, over the longer term, values of properties located in the selected areas will appreciate. Companies that stand to benefit include SP Setia (KL EcoCity), Mah Sing (Icon Residence and Star Avenue), Suncity (Sunway Velocity) and Glomac (Damansara and PJ projects).
The ability to pay a 20% downpayment upfront
? High-end properties would be more susceptible. As a rough indication (refer to Table 4), the proportion that a typical 10% downpayment to household net financial asset (financial asset minus total debt; financial assets comprise saving deposits, unit trust funds, life insurance funds and EPF) is about 16-18%. However, if a 20% downpayment is required, it would then make up about 32-36% of household net financial asset.
Therefore, on the surface, the impact on the property sector is rather minimal. However, there are a few caveats here:
(i) The average value of property transacted is about the range for middle-end properties but most properties that are sold by many of the property companies under our coverage are priced at above RM500k; and
(ii) Net financial asset per household in the following table appears on the high side, as low income group’s household financial asset typically consists of only EPF and savings, and EPF makes up about 25-30% of total household financial assets. As such, the proportion of downpayment to household financial net asset may not be very accurate to
reflect the impact on the property sector, once lending cap is imposed.
Nevertheless, we are of the opinion that, high-end property segment will be more supceptible (relative to other sub-segments) to changes in lending policy, as many speculative buyings are mainly concentrated on this segment. As lending cap is lowered, “return on equity” will therefore be reduced, making property investment less attractive.
In addition, we are also aware that, the current strong sales of properties priced above RM500k are very much supported by easy financing and attractive incentives offered by developers (e.g. no payment until completion). Hence, depending on the extent of developers’ ability to come out with innovative marketing scheme, we think generally impact on high-end property segment will be relatively significant, compared to middle and low-end housing segment.
Key Risks for the sector
? Risks. Our view is formed based on the assumption that first and second home buyers are exempted from lower LTV ratio. However, if this is not the case, our investment thesis can be derailed. Key risks for the property sector are: 1) Lower-than-expected cap on lending rate imposed by Bank Negara Malaysia; 2) higher tax bracket for real property gain tax (RPGT); and 3) country risks.
Valuations and Recommendations
? Valuations still attractive. Although property stocks, on average, have done quite well in 3Q2010 (+17%), in our opinion, valuations are still attractive at the current level. While developers such as SP Setia, Mah Sing, Glomac, and Suncity are generating record sales, P/B for many property stocks are still below their +2 stdev level or their previous peak in 2007-08 (see Charts 15-23). We believe once the regulatory risk is cleared (pending announcement from the authority) and if the new measures are in line with our expectations, we see the strong potential for property stocks to outperform going forward.
Maintain Overweight. We maintain our Overweight stance on the property sector. To re-iterate, Average Residential Property Price will continue to hold until 2012-2013, supported by:
(i) Faster growing of young demographics to drive big-ticket purchases i.e. homes and motor vehicles;
(ii) Low mortgage rate as commercial banks continue to offer discount to BLR;
(iii) Aggressive promotions/incentives being offered by developers;
(iv) Stregthening in ringgit that encourages foreigners participation; and
(v) Property is a preferred vehicle to hedge against inflation. In addition, higher land replacement cost will also hold up property prices in the primary market.
Our top picks for the sector remained unchanged: IJM Land (OP, FV = RM3.00), Mah Sing (OP, FV =RM2.06) and Suncity (OP, FV = RM5.48).
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