Share
Plenitude’s annualised 1HFY10 earnings came in 29% above our expectation and consensus estimates, buoyed particularly by exceptionally strong new property sales and faster progress billings in 2QFY10. 1HFY10 turnover and net profit improved significantly by 61% (q-o-q: +89%) and 49% (q-o-q: +97%) respectively, mainly due to these factors above as well as some lumpy earnings recognition from newly completed projects that were recently handed over. Based on the exceptional 2QFY10 numbers, we are adjusting our earnings forecast slightly upwards to derive a slightly higher CY10 fair value of RM2.81, based on 0.52x CY10 P/NTA. Maintain neutral.
Exceptionally strong 2QFY10. 1HFY10 turnover and net profit improved significantly by 61% (q-o-q: +89%) and 49% (q-o-q: +97%) respectively, mainly due to the exceptionally strong 2QFY10 new property sales, faster progress billings as well as recognition of lumpy earnings from newly completed projects that were recently handed over. Earnings were also buoyed by the commencement of progress billings in 4QFY09 for its RM200 million Bayu Feringghi project in Penang, which was launched in Jan ’09 and has a take-up rate of approximately 40%-50%.
Earnings upgrade. To reflect the strong 2QFY10 earnings, we are upgrading our FY10 net profit by 13.5%, mainly due to the adjustment to assumptions on new property sales as well as momentum in progress billings for some of Plenitude’s development projects.
Making a mark in Johor. The recently concluded land sale in Taman Desa Tebrau to the Ikano Group will pave way for the latter to commence the construction of its famed IKEA mall in the township soon. The expected completion in late 2010/early 2011 will coincide with our expected next upcycle in the residential property market, implying that the Desa Tebrau township as a whole will likely reap the full benefits from the resurgence of homebuying activities by then.
Maintain Neutral. To reflect our earnings upgrade, we are upgrading Plenitude’s CY10 fair value slightly to RM2.81 based on 0.52x CY10 P/NTA. Given the limited potential upside from the current level, however, we are maintaining our Neutral on the stock for now. Any near-term downside risk to the stock appears to be largely mitigated as the stock is still well-supported by its strong net cash of RM1.82/share, reasonable dividend yield of 4.2% and RNAV/share of RM6.73.
