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Naim’s FY09 earnings of RM78.7 million (-2.5% y-o-y) were within our expectation (+1.7%) although the lower q-o-q profits were due to weaker contributions from Dayang. We continue to see increasing jobs in Sarawak, fuelled by the state elections expected to be held next year, much to Naim’s benefit. We retain our earnings estimates and RM4.12 TP. Naim is our top pick for Sarawak construction play.
Results as anticipated. Naim’s 4QFY09 results came with a higher revenue of RM152.9 million (+6.8% y-o-y) and earnings of RM18.8m (-30.5% y-o-y). On a full year basis, FY09 earnings totalled RM78.7m (-2.5% y-o-y). If we remove the realisation on negative goodwill incurred for Dayang in FY08 (+RM8.1m), y-o-y earnings growth would have been slightly positive. All in all, its earnings were within both our expectations (+1.7%) and consensus (+2.1%).
Lower quarterly. From a q-o-q perspective, although revenue was up 5.9%, earnings declined by 12.1%, mainly attributed to lower contributions from its associate, Dayang, which saw its earnings sliding since 3QFY09.
Still a Sarawak play. The Sarawak state elections are expected to be held sometime in early to mid-2011. In its efforts to garner “political brownie points’’, we believe that increasing infrastructure jobs will be rolled out closer to the polls. The key beneficiaries of a greater job flow in Sarawak are “home-based” contractors such as Naim as jobs in the state are usually awarded to them. The jobs flow in Sarawak has been good so far into the year, with Sinohydro-Naim JV bagging the RM209m Bakun-Similajau transmission line and Hock Seng Lee winning a RM36 million road job.
Upcoming jobs. Naim holds a Letter of Intent (LOI) for the Kuching Flood Mitigation Project (RM1.3 billion) and an equipment supply-installation contract (RM100 million). Other potential jobs include a resettlement village for indigenous people (RM200 million), affordable housing and (RM150 million) and road works (RM120 million). We also do not discount more jobs coming out of Fiji, in which Naim has recently set up a subsidiary. The company will soon be accepting a US$100 million (RM341.24 million) road rehab job in Fiji which was offered to it.
Maintain BUY. Given that results were within our expectations, we maintain our FY10–11 projections. Our RM4.12 TP is based on a 2-stage SOP comprising: (i) 12x Naim’s FY10 earnings (ex. Dayang’s contribution), and (ii) 9x its share of Dayang’s FY10 profits. Naim currently trades at 8.8x FY10 earnings and 7.4x FY11, which we feel is undemanding considering the positive news envisaged for Sarawak. Naim remains our preferred pick for thematic Sarawak construction play.
