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Perhatian kepada kes harian Covid-19 dan jangkaan unjuran kes dari 4 Januari sehingga 31 Mei 2021 dengan kadar kebolehjangkitan Ro/Rt pada 1.1 dan 1.2 di Malaysia. pic.twitter.com/JTqRj8lXpM
— Noor Hisham Abdullah (@DGHisham) January 7, 2021
KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 7): Daily Covid-19 infections could reach up to 8,000 by mid-March if the infection rate or R0, reaches 1.2, Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah explained in a Twitter post.
To illustrate Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah used two Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological prediction models of the possible rate of infections for Malaysia when the R0 is at 1.1 and 1.2, reported the Malay Mail.
One SEIR model showed that “in the current scenario” with R0 infection rate at 1.1, daily cases for the country would reach 3,000 during the second week of February.
If the R0 remains at 1.1 by the second week of April, there be 5,000 daily cases.
Yesterday Dr Noor Hisham said Malaysia R0 has climbed back to 1.1, adding that efforts to bring down the R0 to 0.5 has not been achieved yet.
But Dr Noor Hisham also presented a second SEIR model with the infection rate at 1.2 and it is here that we can “potentially record 8,000 daily cases by the third week of March”, reported the news portal.
Today, Malaysia reported 3,027 newly-confirmed Covid-19 cases, a fresh record high which brought the nation’s cumulative number of infected individuals to 128,465 so far.
Eight deaths were also reported.
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