Health DG: Software to predict geographic spread of COVID-19 infections in the works

KUALA LUMPUR (April 2): The Ministry of Health (MoH) is working together with the National Security Council (NSC) to come up with a software that will be able to predict the geographic spread of COVID-19 infections to help combat the pandemic.

Also involved in the collaboration is the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation and the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC), MoH director-general Datuk Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah (pictured) told reporters yesterday.

"For example, we know there is a spike of cases in Simpang Renggam, [and] we know there is a spike of cases in Sg Lui, so it helps us to take fast action in those hotspots," he said.

Noor Hisham said the second phase of the Movement Control Order (MCO) - which started yesterday until April 14 - will focus on efforts to address the outbreak in those hotspots. 

"Once we have identified the hotspots, and if there is actually an exponential increase in cases [there], for example 40 cases in one day, then we will probably impose an Enhanced MCO (EMCO) in that area," he said.

"Under EMCO, we will screen everyone in the area and identify the positive cases - test, isolate, and give them treatment," Noor Hisham added.

On Monday (March 30), the MoH listed 15 areas in Malaysia as red zones, which are areas with the highest COVID-19 infections.

In peninsular Malaysia, the red zones are: Petaling, Lembah Pantai, Hulu Langat, Seremban, Johor Bahru, Kluang, Kota Bharu, Kinta, Kepong, Klang, Gombak, Titiwangsa and Hilir Perak. In East Malaysia, the Ministry listed Kuching and Tawau as red zones.

The Government has so far issued three EMCO directives. The first was for Kampung Dato’ Ibrahim Majid and Bandar Baharu Dato’ Ibrahim Majid in Simpang Renggam in Kluang, Johor. This was followed by one for seven villages located between Batu 21 and Batu 24 in Sungai Lui, Hulu Langat, Selangor, and another for the Menara City One condominium in Kuala Lumpur.

On the efficacy of the phase one MCO, which ended on Tuesday, Noor Hisham said the trend for new cases daily seems to have flattened compared with projections made by the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER).

In a research paper earlier, MIER projected that Malaysia's COVID-19 infection rate would peak at around 8,900 cases by mid-April. 

"So the cases in Malaysia has not spiked up exponentially, so far. Instead it seems to have flattened. So, from the graph we can see some early signs that we have been successful in the implementation of the MCO," Noor Hisham said.

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